When biden led, the polls in almost every battleground state experts warned that a trump win was still possible, but only if polls were even worse than they were in 2016.. Well, look at where biden is right.
Now he's up by 10 points. More than that, look at that he's above 50. Hillary clinton was well below 50. So did history repeat itself in 2020, let's. Compare the polling averages listed by 538 with the actual results both nationally and in every battleground state.
Trump outperformed the polls again that ended up being decisive in only two states, florida and north carolina, where the winner was different than what was projected but didn't change the overall electoral outcome, but the stark difference between poles and reality in states like Iowa, ohio and wisconsin still stands out.
One pollster, who predicted trump's wide margin in iowa correctly against conventional wisdom, was ann seltzer. It takes a little bit of practice to to sort of live in what i call the the corral of pot shots.
While your poll is out there waiting to see what happens with the election polling, trump in midwestern states such as iowa has been a riddle for the industry ever since 2016.. So what makes her methods different? There are a lot of pollsters who do what i call they pull backwards.
That is, they look at what happened in previous elections and use that to adjust their sample of today to hopefully project as an electorate of tomorrow, and i don't. Do that i take nothing from the past and build it into my pulse.
Therefore, i hope the future can reveal itself to me in my data part of the problem these days, according to rachel bittikoffer, is who is available to pollsters. There is this perpetual problem of finding people from the bottom 50 percent left and right who are gonna.
Do a survey they don't know who mitch mcconnell? Is they don't know who nancy pelosi? Is they don't? Read the new york times they don't watch the news. What makes things even harder is that republicans in the u.
s are much more likely to distrust news organizations who sponsor a lot of polling, which could be one explanation of why trump underperforms in polls we are in this time period, where especially the political right has has Found value in getting people to distrust government right and getting people to divest themselves from civic uh participation.
So what could be a solution? The only way the pollsters will ever be able to measure them is by asking longer questions and by empowering these people, telling them that, if you speak to us, the world is going to hear you.
It actually requires a different questionnaire than what we normally would do with voters, [ Music, ]